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Each evening the solar and household load for the next day are forecast half-hour by half-hour, and the battery plan is made on that forecast. Here is how the forecasts compare with what happened.
Today · made Sat 31 Oct, 21:15
Tomorrow's forecast is made at 21:15; until then this is the one today was planned on.
Solar
1.7 kWh
Household load
6.3 kWh
Battery plan
None
No plan was made on this forecast.
kWh per half-hour, UK time. Hover or tap a half-hour for its values.
Forecast vs actual
Replayed by the backfill: the forecast the model would have made the evening before, from the weather forecast it would have had. Totals cover the 48 half-hours with a trusted reading.
forecast 6.5 kWh · actual 7.1 kWh · under by 0.6 kWh · error 30% of actual
kWh per half-hour, UK time. Hover or tap a half-hour for its values.
55 scored days · 0 live
Solar forecast
263 kWh
Solar actual
274 kWh
Half-hourly error
45%
of actual, summed over every scored slot
kWh per day over the half-hours with a trusted reading. Hover or tap a day; open it to see its half-hours.
| Day | Solar f/c | Actual | Error | Load f/c | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Octbackfill | 5.3 kWh | 3.3 kWh | 62% | 4.9 kWh | 5.1 kWh | 53% |
| Thu 29 Octbackfill | 4.5 kWh | 2.9 kWh | 68% | 6.6 kWh | 3.9 kWh | 119% |
| Wed 28 Octbackfill | 4.5 kWh | 3.4 kWh | 53% | 6.7 kWh | 4.8 kWh | 93% |
| Tue 27 Octbackfill | 4.0 kWh | 2.9 kWh | 48% | 6.9 kWh | 3.1 kWh | 144% |
| Mon 26 Octbackfill | 0.5 kWh | 1.6 kWh | 73% | 6.9 kWh | 5.1 kWh | 96% |
| Sun 25 Octbackfill | 5.2 kWh | 3.9 kWh | 41% | 6.6 kWh | 6.3 kWh | 64% |
| Sat 24 Octbackfill | 0.8 kWh | 1.5 kWh | 49% | 6.5 kWh | 5.1 kWh | 75% |
| Fri 23 Octbackfill | 0.5 kWh | 1.2 kWh | 67% | 7.6 kWh | 7.7 kWh | 62% |
| Thu 22 Octbackfill | 6.1 kWh | 4.3 kWh | 47% | 7.6 kWh | 5.6 kWh | 88% |
| Wed 21 Octbackfill | 1.1 kWh | 2.1 kWh | 59% | 7.6 kWh | 6.6 kWh | 70% |
| Tue 20 Octbackfill | 0.5 kWh | 0.9 kWh | 57% | 7.7 kWh | 5.3 kWh | 95% |
| Mon 19 Octbackfill | 3.2 kWh | 4.0 kWh | 36% | 7.7 kWh | 5.8 kWh | 95% |
| Sun 18 Octbackfill | 4.2 kWh | 4.7 kWh | 39% | 6.5 kWh | 6.1 kWh | 76% |
| Sat 17 Octbackfill | 4.5 kWh | 4.9 kWh | 40% | 6.5 kWh | 6.1 kWh | 84% |
| Fri 16 Octbackfill | 3.0 kWh | 3.7 kWh | 42% | 7.6 kWh | 5.7 kWh | 90% |
| Thu 15 Octbackfill | 2.8 kWh | 3.5 kWh | 36% | 7.7 kWh | 5.9 kWh | 73% |
| Wed 14 Octbackfill | 6.1 kWh | 5.0 kWh | 32% | 7.5 kWh | 5.3 kWh | 72% |
| Tue 13 Octbackfill | 5.6 kWh | 4.2 kWh | 59% | 7.3 kWh | 5.5 kWh | 59% |
| Mon 12 Octbackfill | 0.7 kWh | 2.6 kWh | 73% | 7.3 kWh | 8.1 kWh | 60% |
| Sun 11 Octbackfill | 3.2 kWh | 4.8 kWh | 35% | 5.7 kWh | 8.9 kWh | 54% |
| Sat 10 Octbackfill | 4.1 kWh | 4.4 kWh | 61% | 5.7 kWh | 4.8 kWh | 81% |
| Fri 9 Octbackfill | 1.5 kWh | 3.5 kWh | 60% | 6.6 kWh | 7.2 kWh | 71% |
| Thu 8 Octbackfill | 8.1 kWh | 6.1 kWh | 35% | 6.6 kWh | 9.9 kWh | 49% |
| Wed 7 Octbackfill | 0.9 kWh | 1.0 kWh | 49% | 6.6 kWh | 7.3 kWh | 58% |
| Tue 6 Octbackfill | 4.2 kWh | 5.0 kWh | 35% | 6.6 kWh | 7.1 kWh | 48% |
| Mon 5 Octbackfill | 6.1 kWh | 5.4 kWh | 50% | 6.6 kWh | 9.6 kWh | 51% |
| Sun 4 Octbackfill | 8.8 kWh | 6.0 kWh | 48% | 5.4 kWh | 7.9 kWh | 54% |
| Sat 3 Octbackfill | 3.8 kWh | 4.4 kWh | 31% | 5.4 kWh | 5.1 kWh | 65% |
| Fri 2 Octbackfill | 5.0 kWh | 5.1 kWh | 51% | 6.4 kWh | 6.3 kWh | 60% |
| Thu 1 Octbackfill | 7.4 kWh | 6.4 kWh | 37% | 6.0 kWh | 6.0 kWh | 66% |
| Wed 30 Septbackfill | 4.9 kWh | 4.3 kWh | 39% | 3.3 kWh | 6.6 kWh | 58% |
| Fri 25 Septbackfill | 0.1 kWh | 5.6 kWh | 98% | 1.1 kWh | 11.0 kWh | 90% |
| Thu 24 Septbackfill | 9.3 kWh | 6.1 kWh | 56% | 4.8 kWh | 7.8 kWh | 54% |
| Wed 23 Septbackfill | 5.4 kWh | 6.5 kWh | 32% | 4.7 kWh | 8.1 kWh | 59% |
| Tue 22 Septbackfill | 7.6 kWh | 6.9 kWh | 27% | 4.6 kWh | 5.1 kWh | 60% |
| Mon 21 Septbackfill | 10.2 kWh | 7.1 kWh | 48% | 4.6 kWh | 6.3 kWh | 58% |
| Sun 20 Septbackfill | 8.5 kWh | 7.0 kWh | 43% | 4.1 kWh | 8.6 kWh | 65% |
| Sat 19 Septbackfill | 2.7 kWh | 5.0 kWh | 51% | 4.1 kWh | 3.8 kWh | 69% |
| Fri 18 Septbackfill | 8.1 kWh | 7.1 kWh | 28% | 4.7 kWh | 6.7 kWh | 61% |
| Thu 17 Septbackfill | 5.9 kWh | 6.2 kWh | 40% | 4.8 kWh | 4.5 kWh | 80% |
| Wed 16 Septbackfill | 4.7 kWh | 6.5 kWh | 44% | 4.9 kWh | 5.5 kWh | 84% |
| Tue 15 Septbackfill | 3.8 kWh | 5.6 kWh | 59% | 5.1 kWh | 3.4 kWh | 91% |
| Mon 14 Septbackfill | 3.9 kWh | 6.1 kWh | 55% | 5.1 kWh | 3.9 kWh | 98% |
| Sun 13 Septbackfill | 2.7 kWh | 5.1 kWh | 75% | 5.5 kWh | 4.7 kWh | 79% |
| Sat 12 Septbackfill | 10.6 kWh | 7.6 kWh | 41% | 5.5 kWh | 4.0 kWh | 93% |
| Fri 11 Septbackfill | 5.4 kWh | 7.1 kWh | 43% | 5.8 kWh | 5.8 kWh | 69% |
| Thu 10 Septbackfill | 6.1 kWh | 8.4 kWh | 38% | 6.0 kWh | 4.0 kWh | 111% |
| Wed 9 Septbackfill | 6.8 kWh | 7.4 kWh | 31% | 6.0 kWh | 3.5 kWh | 129% |
| Tue 8 Septbackfill | 3.8 kWh | 2.3 kWh | 97% | 5.8 kWh | 6.1 kWh | 64% |
| Mon 7 Septbackfill | 4.5 kWh | 7.5 kWh | 43% | 5.8 kWh | 10.0 kWh | 58% |
| Sun 6 Septbackfill | 10.6 kWh | 9.1 kWh | 34% | 5.3 kWh | 6.2 kWh | 53% |
| Sat 5 Septbackfill | 8.0 kWh | 8.8 kWh | 41% | 5.3 kWh | 5.2 kWh | 52% |
| Fri 4 Septbackfill | 3.2 kWh | 5.3 kWh | 43% | 6.0 kWh | 6.4 kWh | 59% |
| Thu 3 Septbackfill | 6.5 kWh | 7.1 kWh | 30% | 6.3 kWh | 3.2 kWh | 105% |
| Wed 2 Septbackfill | 4.2 kWh | 5.5 kWh | 48% | 6.5 kWh | 2.7 kWh | 145% |
irradiance_scale_v1: scales the forecast sunshine on the panels by a factor fitted on the four weeks before.similar_days_v1: the average of recent days of the same kind (weekday or weekend) at each time.forecast 6.3 kWh · actual 3.2 kWh · over by 3.0 kWh · error 105% of actual
kWh per half-hour, UK time. Hover or tap a half-hour for its values.